Three NFL Week 13 Upset Picks To Consider

Three NFL Week 13 Upset Picks To Consider (2023)

Three upset picks for NFL Week 13 stand out as value bets based on model predictions, matchup research, and/or recent news.

November 29, 2023 – by Jason Lisk

Eagles are home dogs against the 49ers (Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire)

Successfully predicting an upset in an NFL Week 13 matchup, unnoticed by the general public, extends beyond mere boasting rights. Historically, underdogs can present more lucrative opportunities for betting value than favorites.

In this piece, we present our top three Week 13 upset picks, focusing on moneyline odds—the potential payout when betting on the underdog to secure an outright victory.

While some of these upset selections may closely resemble coin-flip scenarios, others might be considered long shots, with an expectation of far more losses than wins (refer to the conclusion section for pertinent notes on expectations).

The common thread among these picks is our conviction that they represent sensible wagers when considering the balance between risk and reward, and will prove to be profitable over the long term.

Upset Picks Results to Date

We keep track of our overall season performance against consensus moneyline odds (at publication time) for every upset pick we make in this column.

Past Season Performance

We started writing this article a few weeks into the 2021 NFL season. From inception through the end of the 2022 season, the picks we highlighted went 44-56-2 (a 44% win rate) for a total profit of +23.1 units, if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(Because we’re picking underdogs at plus-money odds, we don’t need to hit 52.4% or even 50% of them to turn a profit.)

If you want to see the archives, you can view the final 2022 article here and the 2021 end-of-year version here.

Current Season

Last Week: 1-2 for -0.4 units2023 Season: 12-24 for -4.8 units

Favorites generally did well last week, going 12-4 ATS, so there weren’t many opportunities to hit upsets.

We got a late field goal to get one upset on Monday Night Football, but had a key kick bounce off the crossbar in another that doomed another. (All 2023 season picks are now listed below.)

Houston (+105) had a chance for a late tying field goal against the Jaguars, but the kick bounced off the crossbar, sealing a 24-21 loss.LA Chargers (+155) turned the ball over four times on Sunday Night Football, losing 20-10 to the Ravens.Chicago (+158) won a game against the Vikings 12-10, despite not scoring a touchdown, with four field goals including the final one in the closing seconds.

Want More Picks?

To get all our favorite betting picks for NFL Week 13, which may include point spread picks, over/under picks, props, or other bet types, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

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Week 13 NFL Upset Picks

In the analysis below, “SU” means a team’s straight up win-loss record, while “ATS” means its record against the spread.

Philadelphia Eagles (vs. San Francisco 49ers)

Moneyline: +125Point Spread: +2.5

This is our highest-rated playable moneyline underdog pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

The 49ers are the favorite in this matchup in Philadelphia, giving us the rare opportunity to take a 10-1 home underdog. Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni will no doubt have that up on the bulletin board.

The 49ers have had the more explosive offense, and the Eagles have certainly had their share of close calls this season. But Philly can grind out first downs with its rushing attack, and will be a much tougher test for the 49ers defense than their recent opponents have been.

Carolina Panthers (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Moneyline: +200Point Spread: +5.5

This is a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model, and also our top-rated spread pick of the week at +5.5 points.

Carolina just fired head coach Frank Reich after a 1-10 start. Last year, we looked into performance of teams in the first game with an interim coach. The results at the time? 14-9 ATS since 2010, and +14.0 units (in 23 games) against the moneyline.

Since that article, teams went 2-1 ATS and 1-2 SU (all as big underdogs) with interim coaches. So while these interim coach situations can be uncertain, that can be a good thing when taking underdogs, as they have been a profitable situation to exploit.

(Just a year ago, Carolina also fired Matt Rhule, and in replacement coach Steve Wilks’ second game, they beat Tampa Bay by 18 points as a 13-point road dog.)

Arizona Cardinals (at Pittsburgh Steelers)

Moneyline: +220Point Spread: +5.5

This is a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

The Steelers finally put up good offensive numbers after firing OC Matt Canada, while Arizona had a disastrous game against the Rams, losing by a score of 37-14 while Cardinals defense gave up over 250 rushing yards.

So this pick is going against last week’s results, and playing on a rebound/regression for each of these teams.

Other factors at play include Pittsburgh still having a favorable turnover margin on the season (over +1.0 per game), which could regress, and the Cardinals’ poor but improving passing numbers with Kyler Murray at QB, even including last week’s game.

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Both the betting markets and our models give all three of these three teams less than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you bet produces an outsized return.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Remember that we expect to get the majority of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week. That includes losing all three picks in plenty of weeks.

After two straight seasons of profitable picks for this column, will the advice be profitable again in 2023? Who knows. Given the lower win probabilities and larger payout odds inherent with underdogs, variance can be pretty wild over an 18-week season and only around 50 total picks.

Profitability may end up depending on whether or not we hit a few home runs over the course of the season with long shot picks, or whether a several-week heater more than offsets most weeks being losers.

Given the dynamics at play, the week-to-week performance of our three picks is not worth dwelling on. We’ll see how pick performance ends up overall when the dust settles at the end of the 2023 season.

2023 Upset Picks To Date

WEEK	TEAM	OPPONENT	WED ML	CLOSING ML	RESULT	LINE VALUE
1	CLE	CIN	118	-110	W 24-3	Yes
1	TEN	NO	149	125	L 16-15	Yes
1	ARI	WAS	271	250	L 24-20	Yes
2	NE	MIA	127	105	L 24-17	Yes
2	CHI	TB	129	115	L 27-17	Yes
2	CAR	NO	159	152	L 20-17	Yes
3	LAR	CIN	120	145	L 19-16	No
3	TB	PHI	187	220	L 25-11	No
3	CAR	SEA	215	180	L 37-27	Yes
4	TEN	CIN	115	120	W 27-3	No
4	MIA	BUF	133	127	L 48-20	Yes
4	NE	DAL	240	220	L 38-3	Yes
5	LV	GB	-105	-120	W 17-13	Yes
5	MIN	KC	179	155	L 27-20	Yes
5	JAC	BUF	215	200	W 25-20	Yes
6	WAS	ATL	119	107	W 24-16	Yes
6	CHI	MIN	125	140	L 19-13	No
6	NE	LV	148	135	L 17-21	Yes
7	ATL	TB	120	132	W 16-13	No
7	DEN	GB	105	-110	W 19-17	Yes
7	ARI	SEA	298	340	L 20-10	No
8	CAR	HOU	139	154	W 15-13	No
8	DEN	KC	280	265	W 24-9	Yes
8	CLE	SEA	160	175	L 24-20	No
9	TB	HOU	130	130	L 39-37	No
9	ARI	CLE	296	575	L 27-0	No
9	TEN	PIT	130	150	L 20-16	No
10	GB	PIT	151	147	L 23-19	Yes
10	DEN	BUF	306	305	W 24-22	No
10	WAS	SEA	296	220	L 29-26	Yes
11	ARI	HOU	185	200	L 21-16	No
11	PHI	KC	125	129	W 21-17	No
11	PIT	CLE	-105	117	L 13-10	No
12	HOU	JAC	105	100	L 24-21	Yes
12	LAC	BAL	155	145	L 20-10	Yes
12	CHI	MIN	158	140	W 12-10	Yes

NFL Week 13 Betting Picks & Model Predictions

To see a curated list of some of our favorite Week 13 betting picks, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

To see algorithmic picks from our various data models for Week 13 (including game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value predictions), visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

To find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our free and customizable NFL betting trends tool.

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