Golden State Warriors vs Sacramento Kings Picks, Player Props & Predictions for April 16

Jan 25, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) drives to the basket between a trio of Sacramento Kings defenders during the fourth quarter at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY SportsThe Golden State Warriors meet the Sacramento Kings in the 9-vs-10 Western Conference Play-In Game on Tuesday nightThe odds, which opened as a pick’em, have shifted significantly in the last 24 hoursSee the Warriors vs Kings predictions, odds, and player props for April 16

The season is on the line for both the #10 Golden State Warriors (46-36, 25-16 away, 42-38-2 ATS) and #9 Sacramento Kings (46-36, 24-17 home, 41-40-1 ATS) on Tuesday night when they meet at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento in the Western Conference Play-In Tournament (7:10 pm PT/10:10 pm ET). The winner of tonight’s game will, on Friday, visit the loser of the Lakers vs Pelicans matchup earlier in the day for the #8 seed in the West, while the loser will clean out their lockers.

The Warriors vs Kings odds opened as a pick’em on Sunday night with both teams at -110 on the moneyline. But that’s not the case anymore. The visiting Warriors are now -140 moneyline favorites over a Sacramento team that struggled down the stretch.

Warriors vs Kings Odds

The spread sees Golden State favored by 2.5 while the game total has also shifted significantly. The opening total was 228.5 and that’s dropped four full points to 224.5 with the under favored at -115.

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Odds as of April 16 at ESPN Bet. Get the ESPN Bet promo for new users today. 

The NBA public betting splits show the vast majority of money still on Golden State even at shorter odds. The Warriors are getting 79% of ATS handle and 91% of moneyline handle as of 11:45 am ET.

The Warriors and Kings are fighting for the right to face the #1 OKC Thunder in the NBA playoff bracket.

Warriors and Kings Play Trio of Razor-Thin Games

Golden State and Sacramento split their four meetings this season with the Warriors winning the first two and the Kings taking the two most-recent. Each of the last three were decided by a single point.

It’s been nearly three months since their last matchup, though – a 134-133 Kings victory in San Francisco on Jan. 25, in which Harrison Barnes (12.2 PPG, 3.0 RPG) torched his former team for a season-high 39 points.

This is also a rematch of a first-round series from the 2023 NBA playoffs, when the #6 Warriors edged the #3 Kings 4-3 in a best-of-seven. The home team won each of the first four games in that series before the road team won the final three, including a 120-100 blowout victory for the Dubs in Sacramento in the decisive Game 7. Curry dropped a playoff career-high 50 points to send his Warriors through to the second round, where they would fall in six to the Lakers despite having home-court advantage.

The seven games between Golden State and Sacramento in the first round last year averaged 229.6 points per game, but four would have stayed under today’s total of 224.5.

2024 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Odds TrackerRead More

Kings Still Missing Key Contributors

The Kings went just 2-5 in their final seven games of the regular season and injuries were a big part of the slump. Both Malik Monk (15.4 PPG, 5.1 APG) and Kevin Huerter (10.2 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 36.1 3P%) remain sidelined. Huerter is out for the season due to shoulder surgery. Monk is out four-to-six weeks with an MCL sprain and could conceivably return towards the end of the first round if the Kings progress.

Concerningly for Sacramento fans, the Kings have lost five straight games against top-ten teams from either conference (New York, Boston, OKC, New Orleans, and Phoenix), though they did manage to cover the spread in two of those (Boston and Phoenix).

De’Aaron Fox finished eighth in the NBA in scoring (26.4 PPG) while Domantas Sabonis led the NBA in rebounding (13.7 RPG) and by a healthy margin. Rudy Gobert was second at 12.9 RPG.

NOLA vs SAC Player Props

Curry has the highest point total at 29.5 O/U, one higher than Fox at 28.5. Sabonis, per usual, has the highest rebound total at 13.5, which is nearly double any other player.

Golden State Warriors vs Sacramento Kings Prediction

I was set to hammer the Warriors when this line was a pick’em but the value has been attenuated now that Golden State’s moneyline has shortened to -140. I still expect the Warriors to advance; Sacramento has no postseason credentials and is battling significant injuries that prefaced their fall from the West’s top six.

Golden State, meanwhile, is as healthy as its been all season, with only Gary Payton II (5.5 PPG, 2.6 RPG) set to miss Tuesday night’s win-or-go-home game due to a lingering calf injury. The Warriors have also been better on the road this year than at home.

GSW vs SAC picks:

Warriors moneyline (-138) Sabonis under 13.5 rebounds (-118)

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Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NBA betting record:

19-25 moneyline (+2.26 units)24-20-2 ATS (+3.81 units)1-1 over/under (-0.09 units)9-15 player props (-7.17 units)0-3 same-game parlay (-3.00 units)