NBA Christmas Day Predictions & Odds for All Five Games Including Bucks vs Knicks & Celtics vs Lakers

Jan 28, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Celtics forward Jaylen Brown (7) shoots defended by Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (6) during the second half at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY SportsFive games are on the NBA’s 2023 Christmas Day schedule including most of the NBA title favoritesNo NBA Christmas Day point spread is bigger than 5.5 points while three are under fourSee the odds for all five NBA Christmas games plus best bets for the day

The NBA’s annual Christmas Day spectacular is back in 20223 with five eye-catching games spread out over ten hours. The slate kicks off with the Milwaukee Bucks visiting the Knicks at MSG for the second time in three days and wraps up with the Dallas Mavericks (without Kyrie Irving) facing the Phoenix Suns (without Bradley Beal). In between, the Golden State Warriors face the Nuggets in Denver, the Boston Celtics visit the Los Angeles Lakers, and the Philadelphia 76ers head to Miami for a date with the Heat.

The table below shows the odds (spread, moneyline, and total) for all five games, along with the start time. If you want to just straight to my pick for each game, use the links directly below.

Jump to: Bucks vs Knicks Prediction | Warriors vs Nuggets Prediction | Celtics vs Lakers Prediction | 76ers vs Heat Prediction | Mavericks vs Suns Prediction

NBA Christmas Day Odds & Spreads

The Christmas Day NBA odds all feature relatively narrow spreads. The biggest favorite of the day is Denver laying 6.5 points at home against Golden State. Underperforming Phoenix is a 5.5-point favorite against undermanned Dallas. Milwaukee is a 3.5-point road favorite at New York. Boston is 2.5-point road chalk at the LA Lakers. And Philadelphia vs Miami is a virtual pick’em with a -125/-100 moneyline on the ESPN Bet app.

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Milwaukee Bucks vs New York Knicks Prediction

Since losing to the Pacers in the semifinals of the NBA In-Season Tournament, the Bucks (22-7, 6-5 away, 13-15-1 ATS) have been on an absolute tear. Milwaukee has won seven straight games and now sits just half a game back of Boston for the #1 seed in the East in the NBA playoff bracket. That streak includes a 130-11 rout of this same Knicks team at MSG on Saturday.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, who was vocal about his team’s subpar effort in the Indiana loss, has been just as hot as his team as a whole. The two-time MVP is averaging 31.4 PPG. 11.7 RPG, and 6.7 APG over the past seven games, all above his season averages (30.8 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 5.5 APG).

First-year Buck Damian Lillard has also started to heat up. After shooting roughly 42% from the floor and 33% from three in October/November, Lillard his hitting at 46% from the floor and an electric 46.6% from beyond the arc in the first ten games of December.

Meanwhile, the Knicks (16-12, 7-4 home, 14-12-2 ATS)continue to be one of the most-predictable teams in the league.  New York is 10-2 against teams who are under .500 and 5-11 against everyone else.  They were demolished on the glass by the Bucks last time out 53-41). With seven-foot center Mitchell Robinson (6.2 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 1.3 BPG) out for the season, the glass is going to remain a massive problem for the now-undersized Knicks.

I am going to buy the spread down a point and take Milwaukee to cover a minimal 2.5-point line at -130.

Bucks vs Knicks pick: Bucks -2.5 (-130 at ESPN Bet)

Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Prediction

The Warriors (15-14, 6-8 away, ATS) are finally showing signs of life, winning five in a row to get back above .500 and into an all-important top-ten spot in the Western Conference standings.

The Nuggets (21-10, 11-2 home, 14-16-1 ATS), though, are back to full health and have rattled off seven wins in their past eight. Nikola Jokic (26.4 PPG, 12.3 RPG, 9.2 APG) is currently favored in the NBA MVP odds, looking to become just the ninth player to win the award three or more times, while Jamal Murray has returned from a month-long layoff with a bang. The Kentucky product is averaging 22.0 PPG in nine games in December while shooting 50% from the field and 45.3% from three.

Klay Thompson is COOKING 🔥

He has 23 points, 5-of-9 from three!pic.twitter.com/dbbmHZkUvc

— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) December 24, 2023

The spread in Warriors/Nuggets is a stay-away for me, but one bet I do like in this game is Klay Thompson over 19.5 points (-120) on the FanDuel app. Much maligned for his subpar performance in the first six weeks of the season, Thompson has done a complete 180 over the past two weeks. He’s reached at least 20 points in six straight games, including his first 30-point performance of the season, while shooting 52.8% from the floor and exactly 50% from three.

Warriors vs Nuggets pick: Thompson over 19.5 points (-120 at FanDuel)

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Boston Celtics vs Los Angeles Lakers Prediction

Tied with the Timberwolves for the best record in the NBA, the Celtics (22-6, 8-6 away, 14-12-2 ATS) have a starkly different resume on their home court compared to on the road. They are the last remaining unbeaten team at home (14-0) but just two games over .500 away, including a puzzling loss at the the  7-20 Hornets.

That’s not to say Boston hasn’t put in some sublime performances on the road this year; they just ran over Sacramento 144-119 last Wednesday before embarrassing the Kawhi Leonard-less LA Clippers 145-108 on Saturday. They also recorded a double-digit road win over the 76ers in mid-November (117-107).

LeBron James and the Lakers (16-14, 10-3 home, 14-17 ATS) have been excellent at home all year. After romping to the first-ever In-Season Tournament championship with a 133-89 win over New Orleans in the semis and a 123-109 win over Indiana in the finals, LA went on a bit of a skid, losing five of its next six. But four of those were on the road and the skid came to an abrupt halt last game with a 129-120 win over the OKC Thunder (18-9), who entered that matchup third in the West and 10-4 at home.

The 38-year-old LeBron and 30-year-old Anthony Davis don’t have the game-in-game-out consistency they did in their younger years, but are still as dominant as ever when their fresh and motivated. Given how good the Lakers looked in their biggest games of the season so far (i.e. the In-Season Tournament), expect a similarly-motivated LA team to show up on Christmas Day.

Celtics vs Lakers pick: Lakers moneyline (+128 at FanDuel)

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Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat Prediction

After a storybook run to the NBA Finals last year as a #8 seed, the Miami Heat (17-12, 8-6 home, 13-16 ATS) have been infuriatingly inconsistent this season. In the first three weeks of the season, they went on a four-game losing streak and followed-up with a six-game win streak. Since that time, they haven’t won more than two in a row or lost more than three straight.  The Heat have paired excellent wins (129-96 at Cleveland, 115-106 at Orlando) with truly underwhelming losses (109-105 at home to Brooklyn; 124-116 at home to Chicago).

On the surface, injuries appear to have been a big part of the problem for Miami. Leading scorer Tyler Herro (24.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 4.4 APG) has only played 11 games this season, while Bam Adebayo (21.8 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 4.0 APG) has missed ten and longtime leader Jimmy Butler (21.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 4.6 APG) has missed six. But the team is only 4-3 in games with all three of their stars, and the wins include a one-point escape at home against the NBA-worst Pistons (103-102), a seven-point win over the 5-23 Wizards (121-114), and a six-point win at the 9-19 Grizzlies (118-112), who were still missing Ja Morant at that point.

The 76ers (20-8, 8-4 away, ATS), on the other hand, sit third in the East and own the NBA’s best point differential (+11.3) along with the best Net Rating in the league (+11.5). They have been excellent at both ends of the court, with a 121.5 Offensive Rating (second) and a 110.0 Defensive Rating (third). Joel Embiid (35.0 PPG, 11.7 RPG, 6.0 APG) continues to lead the league in both scoring and Player Efficiency Rating at 34.84, which is more than three points higher than the next player on the list (Jokic, 31.67).

Philly’s four road losses this season all came against quality opponents: 118-117 at Milwaukee, 112-99 at Minnesota, 124-114 at New Orleans, and 125-119 at Boston. It’s somewhat concerning that they only have one road win over a team that’s currently over .500 (127-123 at OKC) but that’s partly attributable to a home-heavy schedule in the first third of the season.

The 76ers have won eight of nine heading into Christmas Day, including handing Minnesota just its sixth loss of the season in decisive fashion (127-113 home) on Wednesday.

76ers vs Heat pick: 76ers moneyline (-125 at ESPN Bet)

Mavericks vs Suns Prediction

Playing .500 basketball so far, there is arguably no more disappointing team this season than Kevin Durant’s Phoenix Suns (14-14, 7-8 home, 10-17-1). As evidenced by an ATS record that’s seven games under .500, expectations were much higher with Bradley Beal joining Durant and Devin Booker to create the league’s latest “big three”. But Beal has only managed to play six games so far and is back on the shelf until January with an ankle injury. Josh Okogie (6.5 PPG, 3.7 RPG in 21.3 MPG) is also out.

Leading rebounder Jusuf Nurkic (12.1 PPG, 10. 3 RPG) should be back after missing Friday’s loss at the Kings (120-105) for “personal reasons”.

The Suns rattled off seven straight wins from Nov. 15 to Nov. 26 and it looked like Durant and company were finally finding a groove. But they have gone just 3-8 since to fall to 11th in the West.

The good news for Phoenix is that Dallas (17-12, 9-6 away, 15-14 ATS) is mired in its own injury-motivated slump. Since losing Kyrie Irving (again) to an ankle injury on Dec. 16, the Mavs are just 1-3 and their only victory came against the Western Conference-worst San Antonio Spurs (144-119).  But Luka Doncic (32.9 PPG, 9.1 APG, 8.8 RPG) has consolidated his status as a top-three player in the NBA and I see value on the Dallas moneyline, which bettors can get at +166 on the FanDuel app. At that price, the Mavs only need a 38% win probability to be worth a wager, and that’s a great price against a discombobulated Suns team.

Mavericks vs Suns pick: Mavericks moneyline (+166 at FanDuel)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NBA betting record:

9-6-2 ATS (+2.03 units)7-5 ML (+2.39 units)5-10 player props (-5.6 units)

 

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