Cleveland Browns vs Houston Texans Prediction, Spread & Odds for Saturday

Dec 24, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Joe Flacco (15) calls a play during the game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY SportsThe Cleveland Browns are 1.5-point road favorites over the Houston Texans in their Wild Card Weekend NFL playoff game on Saturday, January 13It’s the first time that Cleveland has been favored in an NFL postseason game since 1995The Browns won 36-22 at Houston in Week 16 of this season. See our top Browns vs Texans picks here

For the third time in as many years, the Cleveland Browns (11-6, 10-6-1 ATS) will be playing on the road at the Houston Texans (10-7, 9-8 ATS) as away favorites in the Browns vs Texans odds.

So far, the Browns are 2-0 both straight up and against the spread in that scenario. Earlier this season, Cleveland won 36-22 at Houston as the 3-point away chalk. In 2022, the Browns were 7.5-point road picks and beat the Texans 27-14.

This time, for the first time, the two franchises will be meeting in the NFL postseason in an NFL Wild Card Weekend clash. Oddsmakers are setting Cleveland as 1.5-point road favorites in the updated Browns vs Texans odds. Cleveland is 1-2 ATS as the away chalk this season.

Browns vs Texans Odds

In the Cleveland vs Houston odds, the Browns are -125 moneyline favorites, giving them a 55.6% implied win probability. The total is set at 44.5 points. The over has hit just three times in the last 13 games between Cleveland and Houston.

This NFL betting line has moved a full point toward Houston in the hours leading up to kickoff. Cleveland was a heavier -140 moneyline favorite and -2.5 against the spread heading into Saturday.

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Kickoff for this game at NRG Stadium on Saturday, January 13, is set for 4:30 pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by NBC.

Cleveland vs Houston Betting Trends

In the NFL public betting splits at the time of this writing, the people are divided in their loyalties. Cleveland is getting 51% of spread handle and 51% of moneyline wagers, but the big money is on Houston. The Texans are drawing 49% of ML handle with only 37% of bets.

The Browns are 4-0 SU in the last four games against the Texans. However, Houston is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings with Cleveland. Overall, the Browns are 4-1 SU and ATS in their past five games. Houston is 4-2 ATS through the last six games.

Bettors are also taking the “over” in this one, putting 63% of the handle on more than 45 total points being scored. The total has gone over in each of Cleveland’s last nine road games. The under was the play that cashed in four of Houston’s past five home games.

The Browns are the fifth betting choice to win the AFC in the NFL Conference odds at +1200. The Texans are set with sixth-best odds of +2200 to be AFC champions.

Browns-Texans Injury Report

Here’s the latest injury report for the Browns vs Texans game as of 2:30 pm EST on Saturday:

Browns

Out: WR Cedric Tillman (concussion), K Dustin Hopkins (left hamstring), S Grant Delpit (groin)

Questionable: CB Denzel Ward (shoulder, knee), S Juan Thornhill (calf), CB Mike Ford (calf), RB Pierre Strong (back)

Denzel Ward, the Browns cornerback who was voted a Pro Bowler this year for the third time in his career, is listed as questionable for Saturday after suffering a knee injury during Clevalnd’s practice on Thursday. If Ward ends up being unable to play, Martin Emerson should get the start.

Texans

Out: DE Jerry Hughes (ankle)

Questionable: FB Andrew Beck (calf), DE Jonathan Greenard (ankle), DT Maliek Collins (hip), WR Noah Brown (back), WR Robert Woods (hip), DT Sheldon Rankins (shoulder), DE Will Anderson (ankle)

The latest Will Anderson injury update is that the Houston star rookie defensive end is questionable to play Saturday. He did not practice on Wednesday and Thursday, but was limited on Friday.

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Can Stroud Be a Difference Maker?

When Cleveland beat Houston in Week 16, the one key element missing from the equation was Texans rookie QB CJ Stroud. The overwhelming favorite in the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds was out while in NFL concussion protocol.

Despite missing two games, Stroud was eighth in the NFL in passing yardage (4,108) and #1 in passing yards per game (273.9 yards). His 1.0% interception rate was the lowest of any NFL QB.

#DawgPound The Browns have deployed Cover-1 at the 2nd-highest rate in the league (29.1%) with a corresponding 7th overall ranking in EPA allowed per dropback.

CJ Stroud is 26th in EPA per dropback vs. the coverage.

— Cody Suek (@CodySuek) January 11, 2024

Stroud has thrown for at least two TDs in six of his eight home games this season. But he’ll be facing the NFL’s best pass defense in the Browns. They’re allowing just 164.7 yards per game through the air. Cleveland’s defense is holding opposing QBs to an NFL-low 57.4% completion percentage. The Browns have picked off 18 passes, tied for second overall in the league. Stats to consider when betting quarterbacks for Saturday’s Browns vs Texans props.

Flacco Is Mr Wild Card

When it comes to the NFL Wild Card playoff round, Browns QB Joe Flacco is an above-average Joe. He’s 5-0 SU in games in this round, and 4-0 SU on the road. Flacco has never gone into an NFL postseason as a team’s QB1 and not won at least one game.

Joe Flacco in Wild Card games

WWWWW

Flacco is 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS.@Browns -2.5 at Texans. pic.twitter.com/HyXQWxzpG9

— John Ewing (@johnewing) January 11, 2024

One of five starting QBs the Browns have utilized this season, the 38-year-old Flacco was 4-1 in his five regular-season starts for Cleveland. He wound up throwing for a total of 1,616 yards and 13 touchdown passes.

Browns vs Texans Prediction

Flacco will be getting back his main receiving target. Cleveland WR Amari Cooper is good to go after missing the last two games with a heel injury. In his most recent game, Cooper went for a franchise-record 265 receiving yards in that Week 16 win at Houston.

Meanwhile, Cleveland’s league-leading pass defense will contain Stroud. Teams starting rookie QBs are 2-6 SU in the last eight NFL playoff games.

Browns vs Texans Picks: Cleveland Browns -1.5 (-110)

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