Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers Same-Game Parlay Picks for Sunday Night Football Week

September 21, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa (97) and linebacker Fred Warner (54) defend during the second quarter against the New York Giants at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY SportsThe Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers meet for the third time in three seasons on Sunday Night Football in Week 5This Dallas vs San Francisco SGP hinges on the Niners remaining perfect on the seasonSee the best Cowboys vs 49ers same-game parlay for tonight’s SNF game at Levi’s Stadium

A battle between true Super Bowl contenders is on the Sunday Night Football schedule in Week 5 with the Dallas Cowboys (3-1, 1-1 away) visiting the San Francisco 49ers (4-0, 2-0 home) at Levi’s Field.

The Cowboys will be looking to end the Niners’ two-game win streak in the head-to-head series after bowing out of the playoffs to San Francisco each of the past two seasons. But that’s not the outcome today’s Cowboys vs 49ers same-game parlay projects.

Cowboys vs 49ers Same-Game Parlay Picks

This Dallas vs San Francisco SGP relies on the 49ers making it three straight wins over their longtime rivals, spurred by another strong first-half performance.

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Kickoff is scheduled for 5:20 pm PT/8:20 pm ET on NBC.  The weather in San Francisco is expected to be 75 and cloudy with winds up to 15 mph blowing northwest.  The wind could have a slight impact on field goals but, for the most part, it looks like near-perfect football weather.

Cowboys vs 49ers SGP Pick #1: 49ers Moneyline

I already wrote in my Cowboys vs 49ers picks that I expect San Francisco to cover the 3.5-point spread, and this Dallas/San Francisco same-game parlay starts on a similar note with the 49ers’ moneyline. It’s not just the strength of the Niners – who are deserving favorites in the Super Bowl odds – that has me heavily leaning towards San Francisco tonight. Over the last year-plus, the Cowboys have proven to be a highly mediocre road team. While going 12-5 overall last season, Dallas was just 4-4 away and only beat one team that finished over .500: the Minnesota Vikings, who were somehow 13-4 with a -3 point differential.

Dallas’ Week 3 abomination in Arizona (a 28-16 loss as 11-point road favorites) continued that concerning trend, and now they travel to arguably the toughest current road environment in the league. San Francisco was 7-1 at home last season with their only loss coming to the Super Bowl-champion Kansas City Chiefs while Jimmy Garoppolo was still the starter. Brock Purdy has yet to lose a game at Levi’s Stadium (8-0 including postseason).

Dallas vs San Francisco Same-Game Parlay Pick #2: Cowboys First-Half Total Under 9.5

There is a decent amount of recent history between these teams despite not playing in the same division. They squared off in the postseason each of the past two years, and the San Francisco defense was dominant in the first half both times. Their 2021 Wild Card matchup entered halftime with a 16-7 scoreline in favor of the Niners, while last year’s Divisional Round game was 9-6 San Fran at the break. The Cowboys had as many first-half turnovers as touchdowns (two).

This season, San Francisco has given up a total of 16 first-half points at home over two games. The Giants were limited to two field goals, while the Cardinals managed 10 points thanks to a 16-yard TD with 24 seconds left in the half. Another strong first-half from the Niner defense is likely, and getting under 9.5 at plus-money is good value.

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DAL vs SF Same-Game Parlay Pick #3: Dak Prescott over 242.5 Passing Yards

Dak Prescott is listed with a passing total over/under of 242.5 in the Week 5 NFL props. Taking the over is, somewhat counterintuitively, correlated with the first two picks of this SGP. If the Niners take an early lead and the Cowboys are playing from behind, they will opt for a more pass-heavy approach. This is exactly what happened in Arizona when Prescott had a season-high 40 pass attempts in a game Dallas trailed 9-3 after the first quarter and 21-10 at halftime. And as my colleague noted in the Cowboys vs Cardinals player props, all the QBs that have faced the Niners this season have gone over their completions total for exactly this reason.

Two of the four opposing QBs the Niners have faced this season also managed to go over 242 yards: the Rams’ Matthew Stafford (307) and the Cardinals’ Josh Dobbs (263). The Steelers’ Kenny Pickett (232) came close, while the Giants’ Daniel Jones (137) did not. Dallas’ offensive line will be able to protect Prescott considerably better than the Steelers and Giants were able to shield their pivots, especially if the Niners are playing something closer to a prevent defense with a fourth-quarter lead.

Putting these three picks together into one Dallas vs San Francisco same-game parlay leads to +432 odds, which is 18.8% implied probability. In other words, we only need a 19% chance of hitting for this SGP to have positive expected value.

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