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Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 8
by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football
Updated Oct 29, 2023 · 10:46 AM PDT
Oct 15, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets wide receiver Randall Cobb (18) celebrates his two point conversion against the Philadelphia Eagles during the fourth quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY SportsWe have Week 8 NFL ATS picks from seven different games for Sunday and MondayAre the Lions the play on Monday Night Football as 8-point favorites?Get all of our top NFL picks against the spread for Week 8 here
It was a rough week in our expert NFL picks against the spread last week. The good news is it can only go up from here. Or it won’t and maybe we’re doling our perfect picks to fade. Either way, we soldier on into Week 8 with a fresh slate of games to dissect giving you our favorite NFL ATS picks for the weekend here.
NFL Expert Picks Today
| Ryan Metivier | Bob Duff | Zach Reger |
|---|---|---|
| Commanders (+7) | Jaguars (-2.5) | Dolphins (-9.5) |
| Chiefs (-7) | Lions (-8) | Steelers (+2.5) |
| Lions (-8) | Jets (-2.5) | Panthers (+3.5) |
| Record: 5-15-1 | Record: 4-16-1 | Record: 9-11-1 |
Among our top Week 8 NFL ATS picks above, the Lions are the most popular play, while two experts are going head-to-head in the Jaguars vs Steelers game.
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Ryan Metivier
Commanders (+7)
Sam Howell is on pace to break the record for most QB sacks. That’s times getting sacked. Something he’s done plenty of this season, being taken to the ground 40 times. That doesn’t make me feel great about backing him and the Commanders this week. But hey, I’ve felt great about some of my past picks and they haven’t turned out so well in the NFL ATS records. So maybe it’s time to get uncomfortable.
I feel a little better when I dig into the boxscore from the last time these teams met, as recently as October 1. The Commanders came up short 34-31 in overtime and in Philadelphia.
But Washington held the edge in first downs, total plays and time of possession, while also being 8/17 on third down and 2/2 on fourth down.
Jalen Hurts hurt his knee last week and needed a brace later in the game. He should be playing this week but if he can’t run as much or needs to be replaced these seven points will look golden.
Chiefs (-7)
The Chiefs just beat the Broncos 19-8 in Kansas City on October 12. That would have been enough to cover this number and when you consider that game was affected by wind, perhaps Patrick Mahomes and co. could’ve done more.
What Mahomes does lots of is beat the Broncos. And the AFC West. Mahomes is 12-0 versus Denver and he’s 29-3 SU against the AFC West.
The Broncos also offer up plenty of advantageous spots for the Chiefs to exploit. The 167.3 rushing yards they give up on average is the highest in the league an the 1,005 total rushing yards allowed is also a league-high. Against tight ends, Denver has given up the most receptions (42) and receiving yards (486). That could mean big things for the likes of Isiah Pacheco and Travis Kelce in Week 8 NFL player props.
My #Denver7 #Broncos Monday night report. Coach Sean Payton was not happy with the win and now here come the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes has won 13 straight AFC West games and is 12-0 vs Broncos. And Kareem Jackson won’t be available. pic.twitter.com/RWPxDGxJha
— Troy Renck (@TroyRenck) October 24, 2023
Lions (-8)
This should be a huge bounce-back spot for the Lions on Monday Night Football. They were the talk of the town heading into Week 7 and then got smacked 38-6. That was no doubt embarrassing for Dan Campbell’s bunch and will be a chance for them to re-focus ahead of this one.
Campbell is 28-13 ATS and Detroit has covered in 14 of their past 17 games.
The Raiders were already struggling to score with Jimmy Garoppolo under center averaging 16.0 PPG (30th). He’s still questionable with a back injury which could mean we once again see Brian Hoyer or Aidan O’Connell. Neither looked good last week. Hoyer is 0-13 is his past 13 starts and O’Connell is a rookie.
Bob Duff
Jaguars (-2.5)
Jacksonville has covered in seven successive road games. The Jaguars are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games at Pittsburgh.
The Steelers, though, are 8-2 ATS over the past 10 games and 4-1 ATS through their past five home games. It’ll be a tight game but Jacksonville is simply the better team.
Lions (-8)
The Las Vegas Raiders just lost to a Chicago Bears team whose QB Tyler Bagent lost his previous start to the Colorado School Of Mines. If the Lions are truly a legit NFL contender they win this one for fun.
Detroit is 7-1 ATS in the club’s past eight home games. It’s been a year since the Lions failed to cover in back-to-back games.
Jets (-2.5)
Coming off their bye week, the Jets are 2-0 SU in their last two games and 3-0 ATS over the past three contests.
True, the Giants have covered the past two weeks, but at the same time, they’re 2-6 ATS through the last eight games. With 85 points, they’re the only NFL team yet to put 100 points on the board this season.
NFL Week 8 Player Props – Best Props to Bet for Sunday, October 29Read More
Zach Reger
Dolphins (-9.5)
This is a perfect spot for the Dolphins. They just lost on the road on Sunday Night Football, and they are playing the Patriots who are coming off a huge win against the Bills. Both of these teams should return to form before Week 7, and the Miami offense should have no trouble scoring, especially with Tyreek Hill practicing again.
Steelers (+2.5)
Mike Tomlin as a home underdog is a tale as old as time. The Steelers are 2-1 against the spread as home underdogs this season, and Tomlin is 18-5-3 (78.3%) ATS in his career as a home underdog in the regular season. The Jaguars come in winning four straight, but the Pittsburgh defense should do enough to keep this game close.
Houston Texans CJ Stroud and Carolina Panthers Bryce Young last played against each other in the 7th grade.
The two will meet again this week. This is look at their NFL Rookie seasons so far.
CJ Stroud – 59.6 % Comp – 9 TD 1 INT – 1,660 Yards
Bryce Young – 63.2 % Comp – 6 TD… pic.twitter.com/rnyE3MXnr8
— NFL Rumors (@nflrums) October 27, 2023
Panthers (+3.5)
We have a battle between the No. 1, No. 2, and No. 3 overall picks on Sunday. CJ Stroud and the Texans have looked more impressive to start the year, but I will take Bryce Young at home. Both teams are off the bye week, but I like Young and the Panthers to keep this game close against a Texans defense that has been susceptible to the pass this year.
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