NFL Week 3 Line Movement Analysis: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

We keep tabs on all the NFL lines all season, dissecting any significant move that may have happened. 

Let’s take a look at Week 3. 

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NFL Week 3 Line Movement (2023)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Los Angeles Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings

Opened: LAC -1

Current: LAC -1

Early Monday morning, this line flipped to Minnesota being a one-point favorite but quickly returned to the Chargers laying the points within a half hour. Both the Chargers and Vikings have started the 0-2 and are in an early “must-win” situation.

Picking a side in this game may be tricky; the smart move may be playing the total of this game. Both defenses have struggled in the first two weeks, and the total opened at 49.5 and has already reached 52 at some spots.

New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers

Opened: GB -2

Current: GB -2

On Sunday, DraftKings opened this game with Green Bay as a two-point favorite; throughout Tuesday morning, there were a few times where it got down to 1, but every time it was bet down, there was immediate buyback to the current line. Two seems to be the magic number right now. 

The Packers are 2-0 SU and ATS to start the 2023 season.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Opened: Jags -7

Current: Jags -8.5

The opening line seemed low, and both the public and sharps took advantage, to where DraftKings (DK) moved it as high as nine at one point, and some other books had it as high as 10. The consensus line has been 8.5 and has had much action since.

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Texans Rookie C.J. Stroud has been impressive early on in 2023, throwing for 626 yards with two TDs and no interceptions.

Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks

Opened: SEA -4.5

Current: SEA -5.5

Sunday morning, DraftKings opened this look-ahead line with Seattle laying 4.5 points. After watching a stagnant Panthers offense on Monday Night, this line has jumped to 5.5. You can find 6 or 6.5 at some spots, which we may see at DK soon. 

Seattle is coming off an upset win over the Detroit Lions as Bryce Young and the Panther fall to 0-2 after two lousy offensive performances against the Falcons and Saints. 

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Opened: PHI -7

Current: PHI -5.5

After the Eagles’ Thursday Night win over the Vikings, DraftKings opened this line with the Eagles as a seven-point favorite. By Saturday, that line was down to 6.5, and by late Monday and early Tuesday, this line had gotten as low as 5.5.

In a surprising Week 3 battle of two 2-0 teams, we may have seen a bit of an overreaction on this line. I think by kickoff, this line may get back up to 6.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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Kurt Blakeway