Three NFL Week 15 Upset Picks To Consider

Three NFL Week 15 Upset Picks To Consider (2023)

Three upset picks for NFL Week 15 stand out as value bets based on model predictions, matchup research, and/or recent news.

December 13, 2023 – by Jason Lisk

Washington will try end their slide against the Rams (Lee Coleman/Icon Sportswire)

Successfully predicting an upset in an NFL Week 15 matchup, unnoticed by the general public, extends beyond mere boasting rights. Historically, underdogs can present more lucrative opportunities for betting value than favorites.

In this piece, we present our top three Week 15 upset picks, focusing on moneyline odds—the potential payout when betting on the underdog to secure an outright victory.

While some of these upset selections may closely resemble coin-flip scenarios, others might be considered long shots, with an expectation of far more losses than wins (refer to the conclusion section for pertinent notes on expectations).

The common thread among these picks is our conviction that they represent sensible wagers when considering the balance between risk and reward, and will prove to be profitable over the long term.

Upset Picks Results to Date

We keep track of our overall season performance against consensus moneyline odds (at publication time) for every upset pick we make in this column.

Past Season Performance

We started writing this article a few weeks into the 2021 NFL season. From inception through the end of the 2022 season, the picks we highlighted went 44-56-2 (a 44% win rate) for a total profit of +23.1 units, if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(Because we’re picking underdogs at plus-money odds, we don’t need to hit 52.4% or even 50% of them to turn a profit.)

If you want to see the archives, you can view the final 2022 article here and the 2021 end-of-year version here.

Current Season

Last Week: 2-1 for +1.8 units2023 Season: 15-27 for -2.8 units

Favorites only went 7-6 SU in Week 14, and we got into the action with two upset picks that both won by more than two touchdowns.

It could have been a perfect 3-0 week on upset calls that brought us almost back to even on the year, but the Rams lost in overtime. That brings our record in this year’s Upset Picks column to an even more unlucky 9-18 in games decided by one score or in overtime. (All 2023 season picks are now listed below.)

Chicago (+150) did not collapse late this time against Detroit, winning 28-13 with the help of three Lions turnovers.LA Rams (+270) were able to move the ball all game against a tough Baltimore defense, but lost in overtime on a punt return TD, 37-31.Denver (+125) shut down the Chargers’ struggling offense (and QB Justin Herbert left with an injury) in a 24-7 victory.

Want More Picks?

To get all our favorite betting picks for NFL Week 15, which may include point spread picks, over/under picks, props, or other bet types, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

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Week 15 NFL Upset Picks

In the analysis below, “SU” means a team’s straight up win-loss record, while “ATS” means its record against the spread.

Washington Commanders (at LA Rams)

Moneyline: +246Point Spread: +6.5

This is our top playable moneyline model pick and spread pick for Week 15.

Washington has been poor in the favorite’s role (1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS) while being a solid underdog play (5-3-1 ATS) for most of the year. They are, though, coming off two terrible performances in blowout losses to Dallas and Miami. The late Week 14 bye week came at the right time, though, and we are playing on a bounce back here.

One reason that Washington has generally been better in the underdog role than as a favorite is likely because their defense is pretty bad (thus keeping even subpar offenses in the game against them), but their passing offense can be high variance with first-year starter Sam Howell, so they have the ability to play with teams on the road.

The Rams are coming off a hard-fought OT loss at Baltimore, and Washington has had a week of rest, so the Commanders could keep it close in this one.

Chicago Bears (at Cleveland Browns)

Moneyline: +154Point Spread: +3

This is a playable moneyline model pick for Week 15.

We have successfully picked the Bears as an upset play in each of their last two games (wins over Minnesota and Detroit) and will continue to ride them. The Bears’ defense has been playing much better and has held three of its last four opponents under 300 total yards and under 200 net passing yards.

Now they get a Cleveland offense that has been inconsistent all year, even if coming off a good performance against Jacksonville with veteran Joe Flacco starting at QB. The Bears can run the ball and play defense in a Midwest cold weather game against the Browns defense, and should provide some value here.

New York Giants (at New Orleans Saints)

Moneyline: +219Point Spread: +6

This is a playable moneyline model pick and spread pick for Week 15.

Fine, let’s get all aboard the Tommy DeVito Train. After looking terrible when first pressed into action because of injuries, undrafted rookie DeVito has become a national story and the Giants have improbably turned their season around, winning three straight games.

The G-Men are running the ball more effectively, and DeVito is coming off 71 yards rushing himself against the Packers, while also completing a high rate of passes.

The Saints, meanwhile, put up 28 points last week, but with only a bit over 200 yards of offense against the woeful Panthers. QB Derek Carr continues to play while looking like the Black Knight from Monty Python and The Holy Grail (it’s just a flesh wound!).

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Both the betting markets and our models give all three of these three teams less than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you bet produces an outsized return.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Remember that we expect to get the majority of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week. That includes losing all three picks in plenty of weeks.

After two straight seasons of profitable picks for this column, will the advice be profitable again in 2023? Who knows. Given the lower win probabilities and larger payout odds inherent with underdogs, variance can be pretty wild over an 18-week season and only around 50 total picks.

Profitability may end up depending on whether or not we hit a few home runs over the course of the season with long shot picks, or whether a several-week heater more than offsets most weeks being losers.

Given the dynamics at play, the week-to-week performance of our three picks is not worth dwelling on. We’ll see how pick performance ends up overall when the dust settles at the end of the 2023 season.

2023 Upset Picks To Date

We came within one play of posting the first 3-0 week of upset picks this year, but lost the only close game of the trio. Now, improbably, we actually have a better record of picking upsets when games are decided by 9 or more points (6-9, 40%) than when they are decided by 8 or fewer points (9-18, 33%).

For comparison, all other favorites (other than the ones in our Upset Picks) have won 55% of close games and 82% of all games decided by 9 or more points.

WEEK	TEAM	OPPONENT	WED ML	CLOSING ML	RESULT	LINE VALUE
1	CLE	CIN	118	-110	W 24-3	Yes
1	TEN	NO	149	125	L 16-15	Yes
1	ARI	WAS	271	250	L 24-20	Yes
2	NE	MIA	127	105	L 24-17	Yes
2	CHI	TB	129	115	L 27-17	Yes
2	CAR	NO	159	152	L 20-17	Yes
3	LAR	CIN	120	145	L 19-16	No
3	TB	PHI	187	220	L 25-11	No
3	CAR	SEA	215	180	L 37-27	Yes
4	TEN	CIN	115	120	W 27-3	No
4	MIA	BUF	133	127	L 48-20	Yes
4	NE	DAL	240	220	L 38-3	Yes
5	LV	GB	-105	-120	W 17-13	Yes
5	MIN	KC	179	155	L 27-20	Yes
5	JAC	BUF	215	200	W 25-20	Yes
6	WAS	ATL	119	107	W 24-16	Yes
6	CHI	MIN	125	140	L 19-13	No
6	NE	LV	148	135	L 17-21	Yes
7	ATL	TB	120	132	W 16-13	No
7	DEN	GB	105	-110	W 19-17	Yes
7	ARI	SEA	298	340	L 20-10	No
8	CAR	HOU	139	154	W 15-13	No
8	DEN	KC	280	265	W 24-9	Yes
8	CLE	SEA	160	175	L 24-20	No
9	TB	HOU	130	130	L 39-37	No
9	ARI	CLE	296	575	L 27-0	No
9	TEN	PIT	130	150	L 20-16	No
10	GB	PIT	151	147	L 23-19	Yes
10	DEN	BUF	306	305	W 24-22	No
10	WAS	SEA	296	220	L 29-26	Yes
11	ARI	HOU	185	200	L 21-16	No
11	PHI	KC	125	129	W 21-17	No
11	PIT	CLE	-105	117	L 13-10	No
12	HOU	JAC	105	100	L 24-21	Yes
12	LAC	BAL	155	145	L 20-10	Yes
12	CHI	MIN	158	140	W 12-10	Yes
13	PHI	SF	125	134	L 42-19	No
13	CAR	TB	200	167	L 21-18	Yes
13	ARI	PIT	220	235	W 24-10	No
14	CHI	DET	150	140	W 28-13	Yes
14	LAR	BAL	270	280	L 37-31	No
14	DEN	LAC	125	143	W 24-7	No

NFL Week 15 Betting Picks & Model Predictions

To see a curated list of some of our favorite Week 15 betting picks, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

To see algorithmic picks from our various data models for Week 15 (including game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value predictions), visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

To find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our free and customizable NFL betting trends tool.

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